Seminar: "The Future of Utility-Scale Solar Installations on U.S. Farmland in a Changing Climate" - Jerome Dumortier
Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics Seminar:
"The Future of Utility-Scale Solar Installations on U.S. Farmland in a Changing Climate"
Jerome Dumortier
Economist and professor in the Paul H. O'Neill School of Public and Environmental Affairs
Indiana University, Indianapolis
Abstract:
The growing electricity demand in the United States—driven by heating and transportation electrification as well as data center and AI expansion—has been driving a surge in solar electricity generation. As utility-scale solar farms increasingly replace farmland, concerns have been raised about land-use conflicts, food security, and rural landscape impacts. While previous research suggests that converting farmland to solar requires relatively little land compared to total cropland available, thus having minimal impact on crop prices, such findings assume crop yields and photovoltaic (PV) output are unaffected by climate change. Yet, changing climate conditions could reduce crop productivity and alter solar output, potentially amplifying land-use tradeoffs. This analysis quantifies those effects to reassess the viability of solar expansion on cropland under future climate conditions.
The research approach integrates climate impacts on crop yields and PV performance, least-cost solar siting, and an agricultural land-use model. The analysis focuses on maize, soybeans, and wheat, which account for over 70% of U.S. field crop area. Crop yields are modeled using climate variables including growing degree days, heat stress, and precipitation anomalies, while PV output is assessed using temperature, surface downwelling shortwave radiation (RSDS), and wind speed.
Modeling relies on projections from five global circulation models (GCMs) under the CMIP6 framework: GFDL-ESM4, IPSL-CM6A-LR, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, MRI-ESM2-0, and UKESM1-0-LL. These are combined into an ensemble average to avoid biases from individual models. Climate scenarios are based on Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) linked with Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), spanning low to high emissions trajectories, i.e., SSP1-RCP2.6 to SSP5-RCP8.5. PV performance projections follow Feron et al. (2021), and electricity generation targets are derived from the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s 2025 Annual Energy Outlook (AEO). A least-cost siting model places solar farms in counties with low installation and operating costs, while limiting solar expansion to 10% of county cropland. This prevents the entire cropland in a county being converted to solar. Land allocation and price effects are estimated using a county-level agricultural model previously developed to assess biofuel and electrification policies.
Preliminary results show that the effects of solar expansion on crop prices are relatively minor under mild climate change (e.g., SSP1-RCP2.6), with corn prices increasing by 3.0% under solar deployment compared to 2.9% without. However, climate change alone substantially raises crop prices—up to 40.3% for corn under ensemble projections—although still within historical volatility. Under the higher SSP3-RCP7.0 climate scenario, crop price effects become more pronounced, especially when solar development further reduces cropland. In this case, corn, soybean, and wheat prices rise by 17.3%, 32.4%, and 19.2%, respectively, due to compounded effects of lower yields and land conversion.
These findings suggest that while solar deployment on cropland appears practicable under stable climate, climate change could exacerbate land-use conflicts. Importantly, this research provides developers, farmers, and policymakers with data-driven insights to evaluate future land-use decisions. Future work will incorporate adaptive management responses such as crop switching and technological shifts, and consider land expansion into pasture areas to better estimate long-term outcomes.